October 2026 Market Update — St. Petersburg 33704: Prices, Inventory, and the True Cost of Condo Ownership

As of October 12, 2026, here’s where the St. Petersburg 33704 housing market stands—and what the numbers actually mean when you pencil out a 10‑year hold.

Quick take

• Median sale price over the three months ending August 2026: $840,000; median days on market: ~50. Homes have generally sold a few percent below list. (redfin.com)
• Active listings at the end of September: 148, down both year over year and month over month; sale-to-list ratio in September hovered around the mid‑90s. (realtor.com)
• Bottom line: buyers have more choices than midsummer but should budget realistically for insurance and flood; sellers still have leverage if they price to the market and prepare well.

By the numbers (latest available)

I’m using portal-published MLS aggregates to ensure you can verify them. Where months conflict by source, I note the period.

• Prices and pace (through August 2026)

  • Median sale price (3‑month window ending Aug 2026): $840,000, up ~20% year over year. (redfin.com)
  • Median days on market: 50 in Aug 2026 versus 62 a year earlier (faster by ~12 days). (redfin.com)
  • Sale‑to‑list price: 94.9% in Aug 2026. In September 2026, Realtor.com’s snapshot showed ~96%. Consider this a mid‑90s market. (redfin.com)

• Supply and flow (September–early October 2026)

  • Active listings: 148 in September 2026; down 13.22% month over month and 37.34% year over year on Realtor.com. (realtor.com)
  • Closed in the past month: 22 (Redfin “recently sold,” rolling 30 days). (redfin.com)
  • Pending listings: 33 as of September 11, 2026 (Redfin pending page). (redfin.com)
  • Approximate months of supply: ~6.7 using 148 active ÷ 22 monthly sales. That’s a proxy (different data vintages) but directionally useful for Q4 pricing conversations. (realtor.com)

Single‑family vs. condo: what’s moving

• Inventory still tilts toward single‑family. Last month the portal count showed 17 condos, plus 5 townhomes and 6 multifamily, on the market alongside the detached stock. That product mix matters for pricing strategy—condos compete across larger radii than single‑family in 33704. (redfin.com)
• Pricing and time on market vary by condition and flood posture. Overall medians (all types) are helpful, but I’m modeling each property’s holding cost differently—especially for attached buildings subject to new Florida reserve rules (more below). (redfin.com)

What’s changed the 10‑year cost for condo buyers in 33704

1. Flood and FEMA

• Risk Rating 2.0 (the NFIP’s current pricing) is fully in effect. Most policies are capped at 18% annual premium increases until they reach full-risk pricing; note that fees/surcharges sit outside that cap. If you’re inheriting an older subsidized policy, budget for a glide‑path of increases. (dejavu.org)
• St. Petersburg participates in FEMA’s Community Rating System as a Class 5 community, which translates to a 25% discount on NFIP premiums within the Special Flood Hazard Area; under Risk Rating 2.0, CRS discounts apply to the full-risk premium. (stpete.org)
• Mapping: The effective FEMA FIRMs covering St. Petersburg date to August 24, 2021, with subsequent Letters of Map Change; Pinellas County’s GIS shows the effective FIRM layer maintained and updated (e.g., dataset flagged effective as of December 22, 2025). For any specific address in 33704, I’ll pull the current panel and elevation relative to Base Flood Elevation before you write an offer. (stpete.org)
• Modelled risk reference: Redfin displays First Street Foundation risk scores indicating a high share of 33704 properties with severe flood risk over 30 years. That’s not FEMA, but I use it directionally alongside elevation, claims history, and FIRM status. (redfin.com)

How it affects your budget: flood zone + elevation + construction + prior claims drive premiums more than ZIP‑level averages. Two ground‑floor condos on Coffee Pot Bayou can have very different premiums depending on elevation and building mitigation. We’ll price that explicitly before you go under contract. (dejavu.org)

2. Insurance beyond flood (wind/homeowners)

• After two turbulent years, there are early signs of stabilization. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation approved a 2026 Citizens rate package that, net-net, reduces average homeowners multiperil rates statewide (exact effect varies by county and policy type). Private carriers have also filed select decreases. It doesn’t mean “cheap”; it does mean shopping may help. (citizensfla.com)

3. Florida condo reserve laws (SIRS, milestone)

• For 3‑story+ buildings, associations must complete a Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) and begin funding required components without waivers. Current state guidance sets a general SIRS completion deadline of December 31, 2025, with a carve‑out allowing associations that must complete their milestone inspection on or before December 31, 2026 to complete the SIRS simultaneously. Expect operating budgets and reserves to reflect this through 2026. (condos.myfloridalicense.com)
• Statute (Chapter 718, Fla. Stat.) codifies these requirements and related disclosures; DBPR has dedicated timelines and FAQs to help boards comply. For buyers, these are real dollars that belong in your 10‑year cost model. (flsenate.gov)

How I underwrite a 33704 condo (the short checklist)

When you ask me to vet a building, here’s what I request and review before we talk price:

• Reserves: most recent SIRS (or reserve study if under the carve‑out), the budget line items for structural components, and current reserve balances.
• Assessments: 3–5 years of special assessments (approved and contemplated).
• Engineering: milestone inspection report (Phase 1/2 as applicable), roof/elevator/structural reports, and any post‑inspection remediation plan.
• Insurance: association’s property, wind, and flood policies with coverage limits and deductibles; I’ll also model a buyer’s unit‑level interior coverage.
• Flood/elevation: FEMA FIRM panel, Base Flood Elevation, elevation certificate if available, and claimed flood events.
• Financials and governance: year‑to‑date financials, accounts receivable aging, and meeting minutes for the last 12 months.

If you’d like a one‑page version to take to showings, download my checklist here: The True 10‑Year Cost of Owning a St. Petersburg Condo. I wrote it so you can see the numbers behind the number. [/the-true-10-year-cost-st-petersburg-condo]

Neighborhood color: why 33704 stays on short lists

• Snell Isle: anchored by the Vinoy Golf Club (600 Snell Isle Blvd NE), a draw for golfers and for buyers who want quick access to downtown without living in a tower. (directory.pga.org)
• Historic Old Northeast: walkable streets, Sunken Gardens on 4th Street N, and immediate proximity to the waterfront park system. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Coffee Pot/North Shore: the seawall trail and bayfront parks keep demand resilient for well‑located homes, with popular access points at North Shore Park and nearby boat ramps (e.g., Crisp Park). (waterfrontparksfoundation.org)

Rates and timing (Q4 2026)

• Mortgage rates are higher than midsummer. Freddie Mac’s PMMS placed the 30‑year fixed around 7.28% on October 1 and roughly 7.4% the week of October 8, 2026. Rate prints move weekly; lock strategy matters for both buyers and sellers with repair credits. (freddiemac.gcs-web.com)

What I’m advising now

For buyers

• Ask better questions: What’s the building’s SIRS status? What’s funded vs. required? How will the 2026 budget change monthly dues? If flood is in play, what’s the elevation and expected NFIP or private premium on your specific unit? I’ll model it before you offer. (condos.myfloridalicense.com)
• Price to total cost, not list price: A lower‑priced unit with thin reserves can out‑cost a higher‑priced unit with strong reserves and mitigation. We’ll compare on a 10‑year total cost basis.
• Move deliberately: With ~6–7 months of implied supply and mid‑90s sale‑to‑list ratios, strong terms and clean contingencies often beat marginal price increases. (realtor.com)

For sellers

• Preparation is pricing power: Pre‑list inspections, a current 4‑point/wind‑mit report where relevant, and a ready‑to‑share HOA/condo packet (budget, SIRS/milestone, insurance) reduce buyer friction and protect your contract price in inspection. (flsenate.gov)
• Price to the pace, not last spring: DOM has improved year over year, but buyers are rate‑sensitive. Use the most recent comps (late‑summer/early‑fall 2026) and be ready for a modest negotiation off list. (redfin.com)

How I can help

I’m Jon Kelly. Before real estate, I spent 25 years underwriting complex financings where a missed detail was never a small one. That same discipline now goes into every 33704 property I bring you—HOA books, structural records, flood and insurance, and the numbers behind the number.

If you’re considering a purchase or sale in Snell Isle or Historic Old Northeast, I’ll build you a free, property‑specific financial audit: reserves and assessments, insurance posture, flood profile, and a 10‑year total cost projection you can actually budget around. Email or call, and I’ll show you what’s inside the numbers.

— Jon Kelly, Real Estate Agent | St. Petersburg, FL